Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x07ee…6d5a crypto 1417 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,060 (+5%) realized +$9,068 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate87%1234W / 179L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$4,053
other 2% −$294
sports 0% −$17
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +11.3% +0.7% 75% 65% +2.3%
≤30d 638 +5.7% -4.3% 76% 54% -2.4%
≤90d 1225 +2.8% -7.0% 86% 30% -7.5%
all 1413 +2.5% -7.3% 87% 26% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 26% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 19% -16.5%
15% -24.3% 10% -24.6%
20% -31.7% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$59 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$9,068
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1234 / 179
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1413 / 1417
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 26¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $451 +$132 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$270 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$151 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $406 −$158 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $170 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $203 +$58 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$6 +23%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $206 +$126 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $204 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $168 +$224 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $163 +$251 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$8 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $160 +$57 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $85 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $85 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $55 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$7 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $43 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $152 +$95 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $296 +$96 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $158 +$108 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$22 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $247 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $208 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $211 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $158 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $206 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $170 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $203 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $28 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $28 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $49 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $204 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $56 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $45 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $168 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $163 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $35 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $160 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.80 · official $42.37 (match) · 3500 history records