Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f1…4c7c other 49 markets active 2d ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$1
other 24% −$2
politics 13% $0
sports 13% $0
culture 11% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.3% -7.4% 60% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 0% -8.8%
all 49 +0.1% -9.5% 47% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage266d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $26 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? Oct 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $6 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $21 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records