Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f1…73e8 weather 506 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (665 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$248 (+48%) realized +$254 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%255W / 530L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day664.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (665 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 785 +72.8% +56.3% 32% 30% -4.3%
≤30d 785 +72.8% +56.3% 32% 30% -4.3%
≤90d 785 +72.8% +56.3% 32% 30% -4.3%
all 785 +72.8% +56.3% 32% 30% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover664.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.3% 30% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here +41.4% 28% -13.5%
15% +27.7% 26% -21.8%
20% +15.2% 25% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$254
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses255 / 530
Open positions53
Markets (closed)785 / 506
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day664.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 19? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 20? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+380%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 19? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+190%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+121%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June 19? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+169%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+145%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+225%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 19? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 447 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 18 $0 +$6 +41338%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 21? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 11? Jun 18 $0 −$1 -2230%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? Jun 18 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 5? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 3? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 11? Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 18 $0 −$2 -480%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 18 $0 −$1 -3818%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 20? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 18 $0 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 14? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 −$1 -230%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 18 $0 $0 -1111%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 18 $0 +$5 +1667%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on May 23? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 21? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 22? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Jun 18 $0 −$2 -1245%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +4418%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 12? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 18? Jun 18 $0 +$3 +1770%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -207%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 20? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +1036%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +930%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 15? Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 18 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 18 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 14? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 8? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 18 $0 +$4 +21804%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 24? Jun 18 $0 −$1 -461%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on May 25? Jun 18 $0 $0 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.56 · official $31.29 (match) · 3500 history records