Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f1…3b8e crypto 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$511 (+2%) realized +$509 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate68%209W / 99L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$188
14 days−$109
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$118
sports 30% −$19
crypto 18% −$4
world 2% +$3
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% −$4
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 33% -9.8%
≤30d 308 -5.8% -14.8% 68% 34% -8.7%
≤90d 308 -5.8% -14.8% 68% 34% -8.7%
all 308 -5.8% -14.8% 68% 34% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 34% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 15% -17.5%
15% -30.4% 10% -25.4%
20% -37.2% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$509
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses209 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions2
Markets (closed)308 / 310
History coverage22d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $7 −$4 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $209 −$10 -5%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 +$23 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $81 −$68 -83%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $92 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$22 +22%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$32 +206%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +237%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 +$32 +96%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $147 −$59 -40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$25 -39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$5 +41%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $401 +$42 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$80 -80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $293 −$38 -13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $195 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $465 −$124 -27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $228 +$18 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $67 −$47 -70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $77 −$20 -26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $169 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $442 +$3 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $47 +$14 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 +$11 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $464 −$10 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $62 +$25 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $87 +$13 +14%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $84 +$16 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $36 +$21 +58%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $200 +$7 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 53m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 55m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers $4 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $87 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $199 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $100 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $94 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $14 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $100 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 7h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 14¢ $14 7h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 81¢ $81 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.75 · official $185.75 (match) · 1064 history records