Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f2…054b other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$1
politics 29% $0
sports 19% $0
crypto 14% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage112d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 12h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 24d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 25d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $96 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $95 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $95 37d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $96 38d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 43d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 46d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 47d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $96 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $96 48d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $96 49d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 50d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 54d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 55d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $97 71d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $97 71d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $97 73d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $97 73d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $97 76d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $97 76d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 82d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 83d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $97 84d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $97 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records