Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f5…d680 sports 675 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,101 (-2%) realized −$1,101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate74%485W / 174L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$331est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$223
14 days+$131
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$669
other 29% +$8
world 4% −$12
weather 3% −$77
politics 3% +$20
crypto 2% −$14
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -3.0% -12.2% 76% 22% -7.3%
≤30d 212 +2.8% -6.9% 74% 34% -9.1%
≤90d 659 -1.4% -10.7% 74% 26% -10.7%
all 659 -1.4% -10.7% 74% 26% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 26% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 9% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 5% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,494
Realized−$1,101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses485 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$331
Open positions13
Markets (closed)659 / 675
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $360 $359 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $292 $293 +$1 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $234 $233 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $140 $150 +$10 (+7%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 95¢ 95¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? No 53¢ 68¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? No 25¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $261 −$24 -9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $195 +$5 +3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $487 +$14 +3%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $186 −$32 -17%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 24 $56 −$25 -45%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $106 +$4 +4%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 +$5 +16%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 +$2 +10%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $148 +$2 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 −$25 -42%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $39 −$17 -43%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $23 +$9 +38%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $48 +$2 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $32 −$24 -76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $68 +$2 +3%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,128 +$74 +7%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $627 +$67 +11%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,248 +$109 +9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $741 +$24 +3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 +$1 +1%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $34 +$33 +96%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $90 −$65 -71%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $139 +$1 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $24 −$21 -88%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $189 +$6 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$11 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $14 +$1 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $178 +$22 +12%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $82 −$13 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $38 −$8 -22%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $180 +$32 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $210 +$3 +1%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $572 +$32 +6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $155 +$5 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $589 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 49m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $79 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $79 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $9 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 53¢ $21 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 79¢ $237 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 26¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 25¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 74¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 16h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $6 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $4 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $3 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $4 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $0 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $187 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $215 19h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 77¢ $85 19h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 77¢ $69 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $7 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $17 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,493.64 · official $1,493.64 (match) · 3500 history records