Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:32:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07f6…a130
sports · 21 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$117 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$114 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$20
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage87d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Japan 91¢ 90¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: SC Internacional (-1.5) Jun 03 $16 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Inter Kashi FC 1 - 1 East Bengal FC? Jun 03 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? May 21 $1,376 +$2 +0%
Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5) May 21 $11 +$1 +7%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 21 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? Mar 21 $1,416 −$67 -5%
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi Mar 20 $438 +$1 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 20 $1,428 +$2 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 20 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 20 $409 +$1 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 20 $413 +$1 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 20 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 20 $1,424 +$3 +0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 20 $121 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in March 2026? Mar 20 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Mar 20 $86 +$1 +2%
NJIT Highlanders vs. Merrimack College Warriors (W) Mar 20 $92 +$108 +117%
Magic vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 116.5 Mar 20 $162 −$162 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% +$7
other 22% −$74
world 18% +$3
sports 10% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $19 1h
Spread: SC Internacional (-1.5) BUY Red Bull Bragantino 91¢ $16 14d
Exact Score: Inter Kashi FC 1 - 1 East Bengal FC? BUY No 94¢ $20 24d
Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5) BUY Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 93¢ $11 31d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 93¢ $17 47d
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? SELL No 84¢ $41 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? SELL No 90¢ $72 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1,001 85d
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi SELL No 95¢ $439 85d
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi BUY No 95¢ $438 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes $27 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes $43 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes $71 85d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL No 95¢ $431 85d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY No 95¢ $356 85d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY No 95¢ $76 85d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $41 85d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $42 85d
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 91¢ $410 85d
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 90¢ $409 85d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $25 85d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 85d
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes $26 85d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $414 85d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $413 85d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $36 85d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $38 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? SELL No 92¢ $236 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? BUY No 95¢ $331 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,085 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +1.6% -8.0% 67% 6% -10.9%
all 18 +1.6% -8.0% 67% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -10.9%
10% -16.8% 6% -19.4%
15% -24.9% 6% -27.2%
20% -32.2% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 64 history records