Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07f7…c333 crypto 169 markets active 5d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%80W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -25.1% -32.2% 57% 36% -27.7%
≤30d 48 -30.8% -37.4% 44% 31% -29.9%
≤90d 169 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 43% -18.7%
all 169 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 43% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 43% -18.7%
10% -29.5% 33% -26.5%
15% -36.3% 24% -33.6%
20% -42.5% 17% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses80 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage47d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$11 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 29 $8 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 29 $8 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 28 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 28 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 28 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 21 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 20 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 20 $4 +$6 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 20 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 20 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 20 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 20 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 20 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 20 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 06 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 657 history records