Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x07fa…6cb3 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$175 (+9%) realized +$333 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 50% +4.0%
≤30d 4 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 50% +4.0%
≤90d 4 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 50% +4.0%
all 4 -11.5% -19.9% 50% 50% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 50% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 25% -5.9%
15% -34.6% 25% -15.0%
20% -41.0% 0% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$135 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$333
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 50¢ 6¢ $177 $20 −$158 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $347 −$135 -39%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $347 +$129 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $346 +$58 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $346 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 93¢ $48 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 93¢ $14 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 86¢ $14 16m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $30 24m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 83¢ $83 26m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $6 48m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 82¢ $82 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 30¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 69¢ $68 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 36¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 32¢ $18 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 88¢ $85 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $19 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $89 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $16 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $32 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $3 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $6 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $10 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $32 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $32 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $4 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $131 15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.69 · official $12.42 · 43 history records