Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
07 0x07fb…6cf2 politics 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$12
politics 36% −$12
sports 17% −$62
tech 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 145 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage138d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $385 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $431 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $225 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $329 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $372 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $176 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $331 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $396 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $159 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $160 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $319 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $139 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $356 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 30 $142 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $388 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 4h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 12h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 12h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 19d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 19d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 19d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 19d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.02 · official $25.02 (match) · 412 history records