Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0801…77dd sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-6%) realized −$7 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$38
crypto 44% −$11
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-79.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -77.6% -79.7% 0% 0% -36.8%
≤30d 4 -77.6% -79.7% 0% 0% -36.8%
≤90d 4 -77.6% -79.7% 0% 0% -36.8%
all 4 -77.6% -79.7% 0% 0% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.7% 0% -36.8%
10% -81.7% 0% -42.9%
15% -83.4% 0% -48.4%
20% -85.1% 0% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$11 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 30¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 3¢ 3¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $109 −$11 -10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 3¢ $47 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $98 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $11 4h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 0¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 BUY 3¢ $11 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $109 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.90 · official $88.90 (match) · 8 history records