Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0802…7b1a sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$546 (-41%) realized −$543 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days−$35
14 days−$545
30 days−$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$515
other 40% −$41
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.1% -14.2% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤30d 19 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% -59.0%
≤90d 19 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% -59.0%
all 19 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% -59.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 53% -59.0%
10% -21.0% 53% -62.9%
15% -28.6% 47% -66.5%
20% -35.6% 37% -69.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$83 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$543
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $116 $111 −$5 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $38 +$40 +106%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $32 +$22 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$73 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$14 +90%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$65 +129%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $467 −$460 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $34 −$34 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $30 +$12 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $111 −$110 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $10 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $17 7h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $20 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $12 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $44 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $10 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $10 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $5 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $10 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 21¢ $4 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 49¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $10 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $51 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.76 · official $322.76 (match) · 51 history records