Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x0803…82ff crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,023per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 98% −$18
crypto 1% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 8 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage224d
Avg bet$2,023
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 09 $22 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Feb 24 $89 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $17,916 −$18 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jan 20 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 88d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 101d
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $23 104d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $47 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $47 118d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? SELL No 100¢ $89 119d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $89 128d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $17,898 147d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $17,916 147d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb BUY No 98¢ $11 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.59 · official $52.59 (match) · 17 history records