Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
08 0x0804…6900 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%29W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$14
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$60
sports 9% +$71
crypto 3% +$7
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +29.0% +16.7% 66% 60% -8.2%
≤30d 46 +33.7% +21.0% 63% 57% -8.0%
≤90d 46 +33.7% +21.0% 63% 57% -8.0%
all 46 +33.7% +21.0% 63% 57% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 57% -8.0%
10% +9.4% 48% -16.8%
15% -1.2% 41% -24.8%
20% -10.9% 22% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses29 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage9d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$41 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$9 +41%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$11 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 +$8 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$38 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$17 +38%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +776%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$9 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 −$31 -72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$16 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$11 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 −$11 -39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$8 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$5 -40%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$6 -34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$9 +139%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$20 -39%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $83 −$29 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$28 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$10 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$8 +28%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +259%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$5 -37%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +421%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $70 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $71 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $33 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $32 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $31 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $24 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $62 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $62 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records