Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
08 0x0805…cf75 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$573 (+19%) realized +$540 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$517
14 days+$517
30 days+$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$448
crypto 4% +$77
sports 2% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +19.0% +7.7% 65% 65% +10.9%
≤30d 26 +19.0% +7.7% 65% 65% +10.9%
≤90d 26 +19.0% +7.7% 65% 65% +10.9%
all 26 +19.0% +7.7% 65% 65% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 65% +10.9%
10% -2.6% 58% +0.3%
15% -12.0% 54% -9.4%
20% -20.7% 31% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$69 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$693
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)26 / 37
History coverage7d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 92¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 7¢ 14¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$23 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$70 +343%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$77 +69%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$96 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 19h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $101 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $102 26h
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $10 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.94 · official $692.94 (match) · 70 history records