Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x0805…a13d
other · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$10 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage467d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 14 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 09 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 09 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 22 $26 $0 +1%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $25 $0 +1%
UMass Lowell vs. Maine Mar 06 $15 +$10 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% +$2
other 29% −$4
crypto 15% −$1
politics 11% +$1
sports 6% +$10
tech 4% +$2
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 59m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $20 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $8 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $21 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $29 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $34 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $8 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $9 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $13 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $21 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 22% -8.8%
≤30d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 22% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 22% -8.8%
all 34 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 12% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 12% -8.2%
10% -18.0% 6% -17.0%
15% -25.9% 6% -25.0%
20% -33.2% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.42 (match) · 86 history records