Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0805…0bb1 world 116 markets active 1d ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,094 (+21%) realized +$1,016 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%60W / 52L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$187
14 days+$173
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% +$1,227
crypto 4% −$66
other 2% −$3
sports 1% +$21
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +22.3% +10.7% 100% 100% +17.1%
≤30d 8 +4.9% -5.1% 75% 75% +16.8%
≤90d 98 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 37% +12.4%
all 112 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 37% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 37% +10.3%
10% -22.0% 23% -0.2%
15% -29.6% 19% -9.9%
20% -36.5% 14% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized+$1,016
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses60 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage115d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 74¢ $150 $227 +$77 (+52%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+3%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $497 +$167 +34%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $129 +$18 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +122%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $386 +$128 +33%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $250 +$140 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 08 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 08 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 08 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 03 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 03 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 01 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 01 $1 $0 -4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +15%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 28h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 2d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $50 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $100 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $664 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $147 3d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 81¢ $97 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? BUY Yes 75¢ $200 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? BUY Yes 76¢ $186 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 34d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $273 35d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $56 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.71 · official $280.71 (match) · 386 history records