Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x0807…c6c9 other 12 markets active 8h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6 (+12%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$6
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.8% +6.6% 82% 73% +1.5%
≤30d 11 +17.8% +6.6% 82% 73% +1.5%
≤90d 11 +17.8% +6.6% 82% 73% +1.5%
all 11 +17.8% +6.6% 82% 73% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 73% +1.5%
10% -3.6% 64% -8.2%
15% -12.9% 45% -17.1%
20% -21.5% 27% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 82¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 24 history records