Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
08 0x0808…da71 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$137 (+10%) realized +$141 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$297
sports 27% −$169
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 59% +2.6%
≤30d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 59% +2.6%
≤90d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 59% +2.6%
all 22 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 59% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 59% +2.6%
10% -18.5% 50% -7.2%
15% -26.4% 45% -16.2%
20% -33.6% 27% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)22 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 44¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $71 −$70 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$25 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $25 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 25h
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 25h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $20 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $71 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 67¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 84¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.89 · official $370.89 (match) · 47 history records