Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x080a…0307 weather 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$67 (+13%) realized +$75 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤30d 8 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤90d 16 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 62% -1.5%
all 16 +10.2% -0.3% 62% 62% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 62% -1.5%
10% -9.8% 62% -10.9%
15% -18.5% 62% -19.5%
20% -26.5% 56% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage70d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 +$28 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 −$20 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 20? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$26 +84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $31 −$9 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$29 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 18? Apr 18 $40 +$20 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14? Apr 15 $59 +$35 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 13? Apr 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 13? Apr 14 $20 +$14 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 12? Apr 13 $20 +$13 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Apr 12 $20 +$11 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 11? Apr 12 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 20¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 56¢ $31 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 58¢ $41 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $36 38h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 45¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 62¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 53¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $31 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 50¢ $31 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 20? BUY No 64¢ $40 60d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 18? BUY No 66¢ $40 62d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14? BUY No 63¢ $20 65d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14? BUY No 62¢ $6 65d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14? BUY No 61¢ $33 67d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 13? BUY No 62¢ $20 67d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? BUY No 61¢ $20 67d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 13? BUY No 58¢ $20 67d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 12? BUY No 59¢ $20 70d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 11? BUY No 63¢ $20 70d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? BUY No 63¢ $20 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 34 history records