Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x080d…7808 politics 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$15
other 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 68 -0.4% -9.9% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage636d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? Feb 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Feb 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Dan 'Jungleman' Cates win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Champi Nov 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brock Bowers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fred Warner win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
Astaria airdrop in 2024? Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Robert Giuffra be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Nov 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jeanette Nunez be appointed as the next Florida senator? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Will Anderson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 17 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 11 $0 $0 -1%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Nov 11 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $57 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $57 10d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 16d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $57 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $57 27d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 43d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 43d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 52d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 53d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 68d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 69d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 69d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 88d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 89d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 101d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 102d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 105d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 106d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 107d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 107d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 108d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 108d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 112d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 112d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $58 115d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 98¢ $58 116d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of February? SELL No 100¢ $58 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records