Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
08 0x080d…6854 crypto 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$173 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%118W / 144L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$312est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$303
7 days+$303
14 days+$264
30 days−$2,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$359
sports 32% −$979
other 5% −$191
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.2% -4.8% 60% 50% +19.1%
≤30d 130 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 41% -18.7%
≤90d 262 +6.9% -3.3% 45% 40% -13.6%
all 262 +6.9% -3.3% 45% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 40% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 36% -21.9%
15% -21.0% 32% -29.4%
20% -28.7% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$99 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses118 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$312
Open positions2
Markets (closed)262 / 268
History coverage36d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 26¢ 55¢ $88 $184 +$96 (+110%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $77 +$49 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $140 +$138 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $210 +$87 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $124 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$130 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $69 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$29 +138%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $69 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $66 −$63 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $496 −$76 -15%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $128 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 04 $147 −$97 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $204 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $57 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 04 $206 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $104 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$16 +151%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $140 +$60 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $188 +$73 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $124 +$49 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $78 +$66 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $197 −$122 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 03 $228 +$95 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $37 +$28 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 03 $46 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $204 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 03 $131 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $104 +$94 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $108 +$49 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 02 $63 +$49 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $93 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $209 −$131 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $500 −$476 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $93 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $73 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $126 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $77 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $278 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $140 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $297 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $181 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $29 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 7¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $132 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $124 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $123 14h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY 6¢ $51 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $124 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $234 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 14h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Canada vs. Qa BUY 2¢ $36 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $69 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $69 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $51 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 13d
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire BUY Surrey 44¢ $18 13d
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire BUY Surrey 50¢ $51 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $70 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.14 · official $380.98 · 1207 history records