Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
08 0x080f…a6de crypto 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,491 (-10%) realized −$1,478 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%291W / 530L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$317
14 days−$336
30 days−$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,277
sports 3% −$60
other 1% −$30
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -45.0% -50.2% 24% 23% -44.9%
≤30d 363 -10.6% -19.1% 36% 35% -20.2%
≤90d 382 -10.6% -19.1% 37% 36% -22.2%
all 821 -9.2% -17.9% 35% 34% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 34% -26.2%
10% -25.7% 31% -33.3%
15% -32.9% 27% -39.7%
20% -39.5% 24% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,478
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses291 / 530
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)821 / 824
History coverage208d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 18¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $41 +$32 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$8 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$9 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $18 +$36 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$6 +40%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$6 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 −$4 -69%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $13 19m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden SELL 94¢ $73 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 52¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 48¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 25¢ $3 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 15¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 2156 history records