Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0810…38f0 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$1
other 23% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage128d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $214 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $107 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $108 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 07 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $105 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $105 22h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $105 15d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $105 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $105 27d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $105 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $106 33d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 37d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $106 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $106 40d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 41d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 41d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 43d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $106 46d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $106 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records