Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0811…5766 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$135 (-2%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%42W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$17
other 24% −$184
world 18% −$142
tech 14% +$13
sports 6% +$43
politics 4% +$113
culture 2% +$1
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 0% -0.8%
≤30d 3 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤90d 8 -10.8% -19.3% 75% 12% -22.8%
all 47 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 9% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -11.1%
10% -18.3% 6% -19.6%
15% -26.2% 6% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$81 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses42 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage604d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 22 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $130 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 10 $130 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $80 −$23 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $200 −$199 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 14 $261 +$4 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 28 $260 +$17 +6%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 18 $59 +$4 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 18 $188 +$4 +2%
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? Mar 07 $234 +$6 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 24 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 24 $166 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Feb 09 $381 +$2 +1%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 29 $15 +$1 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 04 $400 +$4 +1%
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater Dec 25 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December meeting? Dec 25 $250 +$2 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in November? Dec 07 $391 +$2 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of November 10 above $550? Nov 25 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Nov 25 $270 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $111 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 20? Nov 10 $268 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on September 5? Oct 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 20 $290 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 15? Sep 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15? Sep 04 $273 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above $106,000 on July 9? Aug 15 $355 +$3 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 09 $133 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4? Jul 09 $230 +$3 +1%
Ethereum above $2,400 on June 13? Jun 28 $190 +$2 +1%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win? Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 12 $245 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? May 06 $40 +$40 +100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 06 $103 +$1 +0%
Solana all time high in April? May 06 $188 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 13 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $230 $0 +0%
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10? Feb 18 $280 $0 +0%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Jan 09 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 09 $200 +$3 +1%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $219 +$118 +54%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $161 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 11d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $130 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 99¢ $130 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $51 68d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL Vitality 66¢ $57 68d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 92¢ $80 69d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $200 69d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $261 86d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 94¢ $260 96d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? BUY No 93¢ $59 107d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 98¢ $188 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 98¢ $171 118d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 133d
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? BUY No 98¢ $234 133d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? BUY No 99¢ $381 144d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 169d
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 169d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $400 179d
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December meeting? BUY No 99¢ $250 197d
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater BUY Yes 99¢ $150 197d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in November? BUY No 99¢ $391 208d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $270 224d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of November 10 above $550? BUY No 99¢ $108 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $268 245d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $111 245d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 97¢ $290 291d
Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on September 5? BUY No 100¢ $82 291d
Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15? BUY No 100¢ $273 311d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.48 · official $261.48 (match) · 95 history records