Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0814…875a sports 428 markets active 12h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,765 (+7%) realized +$4,765 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%249W / 179L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$362est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$94
14 days+$300
30 days+$1,439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$1,101
other 21% +$3,502
crypto 12% +$271
politics 5% +$30
world 1% −$401
economics 0% −$12
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 51% -9.9%
≤30d 197 +3.4% -6.5% 61% 58% -4.6%
≤90d 365 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 52% -7.7%
all 428 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 54% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 54% -3.0%
10% -17.4% 46% -12.3%
15% -25.3% 35% -20.8%
20% -32.7% 24% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$60 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,765
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses249 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$362
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 428
History coverage630d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $25 +$29 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $496 +$210 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$76 +75%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$66 +130%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$21 +206%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$85 +413%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$42 -78%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $361 +$104 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,165 +$210 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $804 −$800 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $37 +$14 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $242 +$40 +17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $144 +$72 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $132 −$130 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $147 +$47 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$38 +188%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $68 −$58 -85%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $20 +$38 +188%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $61 −$13 -22%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $117 +$87 +74%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 +$4 +7%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $24 −$24 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $20 +$26 +129%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $242 +$82 +34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $20 +$18 +89%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $31 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$11 +23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $566 +$269 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,846 +$20 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$44 +43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $967 +$72 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 85¢ $54 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $15 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $151 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $101 13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 6¢ $10 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $442 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 63¢ $178 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $102 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 67¢ $302 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $86 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 35¢ $79 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $92 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 34¢ $87 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 38¢ $98 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 19¢ $102 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $102 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $102 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $117 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $51 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 28¢ $51 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 75¢ $101 40h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 29¢ $15 44h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 25¢ $26 44h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $31 44h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $105 44h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $10 44h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $10 46h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 19¢ $20 47h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 32¢ $22 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1041 history records