Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0815…b736 sports 1175 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 322d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,964 (-3%) realized −$16,981 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%1088W / 82L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$49
14 days+$100
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3,147
sports 46% −$11,175
crypto 5% −$461
weather 2% +$156
world 1% +$91
culture 0% +$13
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 59 -0.5% -10.0% 93% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 114 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -8.7%
all 1170 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 1% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 1% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -20.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$605) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$318 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$802
Realized−$16,981
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1088 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1170 / 1175
History coverage323d ⚠
Avg bet$536
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 96¢ 98¢ $350 $358 +$7 (+2%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 95¢ 100¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 98¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 27 $100 −$10 -10%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $190 +$2 +1%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $300 +$5 +2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $300 +$6 +2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $362 +$4 +1%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $427 +$6 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $225 +$2 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $181 +$2 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $108 +$1 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $77 +$2 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $181 +$4 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $125 +$1 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $133 +$3 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $500 +$5 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $253 +$7 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $744 +$8 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $300 +$2 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $18 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $600 +$7 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $115 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $400 +$6 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $400 +$4 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $61 +$6 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $453 +$5 +1%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $216 +$6 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $446 +$4 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P SELL No 87¢ $90 47m
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 98¢ $10 51m
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pri BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pri BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $190 41h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $300 43h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $300 43h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $227 3d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $8 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $190 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $25 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $51 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $311 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $181 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $108 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $59 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $83 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $98 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.04 · official $802.04 (match) · 3500 history records