Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0815…16e7 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%23W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$6
other 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 23 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses23 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage64d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? May 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 19? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $57 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $106 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $106 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $105 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $106 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $104 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $105 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $104 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $104 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $104 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $104 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $104 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $103 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $103 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $102 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 38d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 43d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $101 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $51 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 24? BUY No 99¢ $50 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.26 · official $107.26 (match) · 49 history records