Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

08 0x081b…d2b6 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2,412 (+35%) realized +$2,265 · open +$147

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$852per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-21.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	+23.3%
≤30d	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	+23.3%
≤90d	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	+23.3%
all	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	+23.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.3%	43%	+23.3%
10%	-28.9%	43%	+11.5%
15%	-35.7%	43%	+0.8%
20%	-42.0%	29%	-9.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,068 vs −$215 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$495

Realized+$2,265

Unrealized+$147

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage5d

Avg bet$852

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	82¢	$348	$495	+$147 (+42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$394	+$432	+109%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5,003	+$2,493	+50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$215	−$209	-97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	Jun 13	$254	−$250	-99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$190	+$279	+147%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$307	−$300	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$352	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	47¢	$394	9h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7,497	24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$8	39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$4,995	39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL TheMongolz	1¢	$6	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY TheMongolz	34¢	$215	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	BUY TheMongolz	16¢	$51	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	BUY TheMongolz	61¢	$202	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	SELL TheMongolz	81¢	$469	4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	BUY TheMongolz	32¢	$190	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$307	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.00 · official $495.00 (match) · 14 history records