Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x081c…03af sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$7
politics 31% −$6
other 20% −$4
crypto 5% −$1
economics 5% −$3
world 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage194d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $268 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $271 −$3 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $273 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $273 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $274 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $274 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $274 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $275 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $275 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $275 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $276 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $277 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $277 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $277 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? Mar 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 10 $278 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $278 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $263 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $270 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 28 $270 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 27 $270 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 26 $267 $0 +0%
Will Tetsuo Saito be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 20 Feb 07 $267 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $265 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 01 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $272 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $267 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $275 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $268 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $30 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $206 17h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $151 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $268 16d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $271 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $271 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $272 19d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 26d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 27d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $272 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $272 30d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 31d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 32d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $273 34d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $273 35d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $273 38d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $273 39d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $274 57d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $274 58d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $274 58d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $274 59d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $274 62d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $274 63d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records