Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x081f…9fcd sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+14%) realized +$210 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$206
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 +35.3% +22.4% 38% 38% -8.8%
all 53 +9.6% -0.8% 49% 49% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 49% +3.1%
10% -10.3% 45% -6.8%
15% -19.0% 43% -15.8%
20% -26.9% 42% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage455d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $407 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $209 −$3 -1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $21 −$10 -47%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $19 +$3 +14%
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Fairfield Stags May 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Green Bay Phoenix vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies May 16 $5 +$14 +270%
VCU Rams vs. Saint Louis Billikens Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Ball State Cardinals Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Jan 30 $70 +$49 +70%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5 Jan 30 $70 +$53 +75%
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5 Jan 30 $70 +$57 +82%
Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Jan 30 $70 +$57 +82%
Hornets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5 Jan 30 $70 +$60 +85%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5 Jan 30 $70 +$65 +92%
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5 Jan 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Magic vs. Heat: O/U 229.5 Jan 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jan 28 $6 +$3 +52%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 28 $6 +$5 +89%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jan 28 $4 +$13 +317%
Wizards vs. Spurs Dec 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Heat vs. Nets Dec 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Avalanche Nov 17 $5 +$6 +113%
Jets vs. Flames Nov 17 $7 +$5 +75%
Golden Knights vs. Blues Nov 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Flyers vs. Stars Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks Nov 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cardinals vs. Brewers Oct 23 $4 +$2 +59%
Nationals vs. Dodgers Oct 23 $5 +$3 +54%
Astros vs. Braves Oct 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Oct 23 $6 +$8 +133%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Twins Sep 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Guardians vs. Athletics Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Rays vs. Mets Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Blues Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Kings Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
White Sox vs. Rangers Jun 20 $5 +$3 +61%
Twins vs. Astros Jun 20 $5 +$5 +92%
Red Sox vs. Giants Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Clippers vs. Magic Apr 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $108 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 81¢ $204 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Team Nemesis 81¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 81¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 38¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 38¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 39¢ $46 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 38¢ $65 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL HOTU 60¢ $110 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 60¢ $112 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL GenOne 39¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 39¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL HOTU 60¢ $90 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 60¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 60¢ $13 14h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 60¢ $63 14h
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B SELL Nigma Galaxy $11 33d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B SELL REKONIX $21 33d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B SELL REKONIX $0 33d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY REKONIX $19 33d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Nigma Galaxy $1 33d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Nigma Galaxy $5 33d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Nigma Galaxy $2 33d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Nigma Galaxy $13 33d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 70d
Green Bay Phoenix vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies BUY Green Bay Phoenix 27¢ $5 119d
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Fairfield Stags BUY Fairfield Stags 67¢ $5 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records