Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x081f…bf8f weather 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized +$11 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%122W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$27
14 days−$7
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$46
weather 19% −$19
other 8% −$5
tech 4% $0
finance 3% +$2
politics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$2
sports 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -25.2% -32.3% 27% 19% -12.8%
≤30d 232 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 35% -5.7%
≤90d 276 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 32% -9.9%
all 276 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 32% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 32% -9.9%
10% -21.2% 25% -18.6%
15% -28.8% 21% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 17% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses122 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)276 / 322
History coverage70d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? No 95¢ 61¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? No 93¢ 83¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 36¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 25¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? No 59¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 22? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-50%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $58 +$9 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$7 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $36 −$8 -21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$16 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -28%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $54 +$4 +7%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 −$2 -24%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $64 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $27 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $17 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $97 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $48 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $5 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $300 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $58 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $12 16h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 90¢ $21 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.21 · official $435.19 (match) · 1070 history records