Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0823…ec6a sports 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$636 (+2%) realized +$1,223 · open −$587
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$574est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$20,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,723
7 days+$1,211
14 days+$713
30 days+$713
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$450
other 7% −$324
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +3.6% -6.3% 31% 23% +5.8%
≤30d 41 -29.6% -36.3% 20% 15% -1.1%
≤90d 41 -29.6% -36.3% 20% 15% -1.1%
all 41 -29.6% -36.3% 20% 15% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 15% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 15% -10.6%
15% -48.0% 12% -19.2%
20% -53.1% 12% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$50 · ×5.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$20,635
Realized+$1,223
Unrealized−$587
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 33
Est. fees paid−$574
Open positions118
Markets (closed)41 / 159
History coverage11d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 118 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 26¢ 26¢ $391 $399 +$8 (+2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jordan 41¢ 42¢ $393 $395 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) South Africa 68¢ 68¢ $396 $393 −$3 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $396 $392 −$3 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $395 $392 −$3 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $395 $392 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) Panama 59¢ 58¢ $395 $392 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 54¢ 54¢ $395 $391 −$4 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $394 $390 −$4 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $395 $390 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 45¢ 44¢ $393 $389 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Panama 37¢ 36¢ $393 $387 −$5 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 34¢ $392 $387 −$6 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $391 $383 −$8 (-2%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $391 $382 −$9 (-2%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Morocco 21¢ 20¢ $391 $381 −$9 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $391 $381 −$9 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $390 $380 −$11 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $390 $379 −$11 (-3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $390 $378 −$12 (-3%)
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Croatia 13¢ 13¢ $390 $376 −$14 (-3%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Korea Republic 14¢ 14¢ $390 $376 −$14 (-4%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 10¢ 10¢ $389 $370 −$19 (-5%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $389 $367 −$22 (-6%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 11¢ 11¢ $361 $357 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $399 +$1,673 +420%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $200 +$50 +25%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$89 +673%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 +$115 +57%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $200 −$195 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $27 +$53 +197%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $16 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $200 −$195 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $200 −$195 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $198 −$196 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $200 −$197 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $74 −$72 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$331 +325%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,000 +$67 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 12 $293 −$286 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $47 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 39¢ $328 2m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 84¢ $13 4m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $21 6m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $35 9m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $141 10m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 16m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $172 19m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $7 20m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $9 20m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $19 20m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $15 22m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $24 23m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $20 25m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 11¢ $231 26m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $27 27m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 54¢ $400 27m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $39 27m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 28m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $7 29m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $9 30m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $36 31m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $12 31m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $16 32m
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 45¢ $400 32m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 32m
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $48 32m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 32m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $400 32m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 11¢ $22 33m
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan $7 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,635.39 · official $20,635.57 (match) · 485 history records