Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
08 0x0823…a970 weather 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$215 (+1%) realized +$212 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate87%155W / 23L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$71
other 18% +$83
crypto 17% +$142
politics 10% −$35
world 8% +$91
economics 1% −$7
finance 1% +$3
sports 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 100% +0.2%
≤30d 9 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 22% -4.4%
≤90d 80 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 5% -9.1%
all 178 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 4% -8.8%
10% -20.2% 2% -17.6%
15% -27.9% 2% -25.5%
20% -35.0% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$34 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses155 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)178 / 182
History coverage601d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? No 96¢ 99¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $119 +$13 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $218 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $123 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $193 +$1 +0%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $974 +$106 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C or below on May 9? May 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 9? May 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on May 9? May 08 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 16°C on May 9? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 9? May 08 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on May 8? May 07 $410 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on May 7? May 06 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 6? May 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $8 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5? May 05 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $386 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 1? May 01 $484 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 1? May 01 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1? May 01 $35 −$32 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 1? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 1? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 1? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 1? May 01 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 1? Apr 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 29? Apr 30 $486 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $517 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29? Apr 29 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 28? Apr 29 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 28? Apr 29 $45 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28? Apr 29 $75 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on April 2 Apr 29 $327 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 28? Apr 29 $454 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 27? Apr 28 $328 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 27? Apr 28 $391 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 27? Apr 28 $390 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 27? Apr 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 27? Apr 27 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 26? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 26? Apr 27 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 26? Apr 27 $935 +$20 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 27? Apr 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 25? Apr 25 $29 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $96 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $149 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $12 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 BUY No 100¢ $89 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $193 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $110 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $112 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $199 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $96 9d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,080 9d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $343 45d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $68 45d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $178 46d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $42 46d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 16°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 46d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $40 46d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $103 46d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $37 46d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 47d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $540 47d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $8 47d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $8 47d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $119 47d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $8 47d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $384 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.69 · official $226.69 (match) · 815 history records