Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0825…f380 sports 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized −$2 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%124W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$26
crypto 12% −$12
other 6% −$10
weather 4% −$5
culture 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -10.5% -19.0% 36% 36% -17.7%
≤30d 239 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 46% -12.4%
≤90d 248 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 46% -11.4%
all 248 -6.0% -15.0% 50% 46% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 46% -11.4%
10% -23.1% 31% -19.9%
15% -30.5% 29% -27.6%
20% -37.3% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses124 / 124
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions18
Markets (closed)248 / 266
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Ignacio Buse 26¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+283%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 35¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+184%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 35¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+184%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Petr Bar Biryukov 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 +$3 +186%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$2 -50%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 +$3 +186%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $2 +$3 +186%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $2 +$3 +186%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $2 +$4 +257%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $2 +$5 +262%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $2 +$4 +226%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $2 +$3 +186%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 +$3 +194%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $2 +$3 +186%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $2 +$3 +186%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $3 +$2 +56%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 22? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 6¢ $2 1m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 35¢ $2 34m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 35¢ $2 48m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 35¢ $2 59m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 26¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 26¢ $2 1h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 35¢ $2 21h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 35¢ $2 22h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 35¢ $2 23h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Tristan Boyer 35¢ $2 23h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 35¢ $2 23h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 35¢ $1 23h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 35¢ $1 23h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 30¢ $2 23h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 35¢ $2 23h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 26¢ $1 24h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 35¢ $2 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 35¢ $2 47h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 40¢ $2 47h
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Felix Balshaw 35¢ $2 47h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 35¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 35¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 35¢ $1 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 35¢ $2 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 35¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken BUY Aleksandar Vukic 35¢ $2 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 35¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 32¢ $2 2d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 35¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.51 · official $45.52 (match) · 593 history records