Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
08 0x0826…0b32 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$27,387 (-5%) realized −$21,706 · open −$5,681
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%51W / 31L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$5,045per market
Trades / day69.5pace
Fees−$1,413est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$110,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$32,430
sports 19% −$9,658
world 17% +$1,126
other 14% −$7,835
finance 6% +$7,752
tech 2% +$12,143
economics 1% −$817
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +52.5% +38.0% 40% 40% -49.0%
≤30d 50 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 38% -5.4%
≤90d 82 +13.8% +3.0% 62% 39% -1.8%
all 82 +13.8% +3.0% 62% 39% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 39% -1.8%
10% -6.9% 32% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -15.9% 26% -19.8%
20% -24.1% 16% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$7,206) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,692 vs −$1,467 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$110,715
Realized−$21,706
Unrealized−$5,681
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses51 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1,413
Open positions44
Markets (closed)82 / 111
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$5,045
Trades / day69.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $28,888 $30,413 +$1,525 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $9,680 $9,945 +$265 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $9,650 $9,915 +$265 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $8,965 $9,230 +$265 (+3%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $6,992 $7,312 +$320 (+5%)
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 35¢ 32¢ $6,029 $5,525 −$504 (-8%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 81¢ 68¢ $4,070 $3,375 −$695 (-17%)
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 24¢ 20¢ $3,878 $3,270 −$608 (-16%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 61¢ 32¢ $6,060 $3,150 −$2,910 (-48%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 65¢ 70¢ $2,829 $3,067 +$238 (+8%)
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 67¢ 58¢ $3,360 $2,925 −$435 (-13%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 63¢ 52¢ $3,137 $2,575 −$562 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 80¢ $1,905 $2,385 +$480 (+25%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 58¢ 48¢ $2,880 $2,375 −$505 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $2,205 $1,822 −$382 (-17%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 84¢ 82¢ $1,621 $1,574 −$47 (-3%)
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 73¢ 68¢ $1,095 $1,027 −$67 (-6%)
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $908 $982 +$74 (+8%)
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $865 $939 +$74 (+9%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $1,249 $937 −$312 (-25%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 88¢ 84¢ $880 $840 −$40 (-5%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 91¢ 80¢ $910 $795 −$115 (-13%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 68¢ 78¢ $680 $775 +$95 (+14%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 61¢ 66¢ $610 $655 +$45 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 28¢ 56¢ $285 $560 +$275 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $821 −$41 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,340 +$660 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 22 $1,285 −$1,285 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 22 $3,070 −$3,070 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $193 +$807 +418%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10,360 −$8,460 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6,540 +$3,460 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11,929 +$1,850 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $15,974 +$6,026 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19,204 −$3,205 -17%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $540 +$885 +164%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $3,433 −$1,771 -52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,337 +$663 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,740 +$260 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,600 −$540 -34%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $2,249 −$441 -20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $710 +$1,164 +164%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,350 +$650 +48%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 13 $3,960 −$3,960 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 13 $3,280 −$2,056 -63%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $876 +$500 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $9,416 +$11,322 +120%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $4,150 +$850 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 11 $8,060 −$2,060 -26%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $7,530 +$2,470 +33%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 09 $520 −$30 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 09 $4,534 +$46 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $450 −$240 -53%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $4,482 +$145 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 02 $2,699 +$38 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $4,245 +$22 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 02 $5,803 +$66 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $19,923 +$17 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $154 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,430 +$1,570 +46%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $7,968 +$32 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $23,379 +$403 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $52,820 +$5,094 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $30,356 +$141 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 01 $233 −$233 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $2,788 +$712 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $350 +$515 +147%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $415 −$125 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $19,880 +$2,839 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 29 $7,206 +$2,044 +28%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $31,195 +$1,951 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 7¢ $4 1h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 33¢ $690 1h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 21¢ $11 1h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 33¢ $1,727 1h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 33¢ $1,036 2h
Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 8¢ $332 2h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 32¢ $537 2h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 21¢ $2,129 2h
Over $1M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 7¢ $5 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 10¢ $4 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $99 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $4 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $9 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $9 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $23 3h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $9 4h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $26 4h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 20¢ $12 4h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 20¢ $88 5h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 20¢ $72 5h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 24¢ $66 7h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 20¢ $28 7h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 33¢ $312 8h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 33¢ $18 8h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 35¢ $104 8h
Over $2M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 14¢ $7 8h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 25¢ $125 8h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 29¢ $107 10h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 29¢ $38 10h
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 61¢ $209 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110,714.52 · official $110,714.53 (match) · 3500 history records