Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0828…a1a6 sports 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31,523 (-13%) realized −$31,523 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%119W / 114L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,022per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$2,767est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$218
7 days−$3,845
14 days−$5,884
30 days−$12,826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$28,644
other 2% −$2,566
crypto 1% −$797
world 0% −$614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 45% -28.0%
≤30d 79 -7.1% -15.9% 51% 47% -25.0%
≤90d 233 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 44% -21.9%
all 233 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 44% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 44% -21.9%
10% -26.8% 37% -29.4%
15% ← realistic here -33.9% 33% -36.2%
20% -40.3% 28% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,145) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$591 vs −$903 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31,523
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses119 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,767
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage62d
Avg bet$1,022
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $563 +$4 +1%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $347 +$215 +62%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $228 +$119 +52%
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Martha Matoula Jun 19 $125 −$116 -93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,889 −$2,887 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $239 −$40 -17%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $1,371 +$1,558 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,145 +$226 +20%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $530 +$612 +116%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $615 −$614 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $584 −$572 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $2,571 −$2,545 -99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2,043 +$1,322 +65%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $648 +$1,400 +216%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $4 +$2 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,354 −$2,351 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,852 +$508 +27%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $682 −$675 -99%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 11 $78 +$109 +139%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $26 +$53 +203%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Jun 11 $10 +$12 +124%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $866 −$858 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $1,211 −$1,194 -99%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Mai Hontama Jun 10 $1,124 +$946 +84%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $984 +$140 +14%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Han Shi Jun 10 $609 +$404 +66%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $476 +$101 +21%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $998 +$677 +68%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Eunhye Lee Jun 09 $660 +$339 +51%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$9 +114%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Yufei Ren Jun 07 $1,277 −$1,274 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $1,249 −$1,249 -100%
ITF Focsani: Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni vs Sophie Greiner Jun 06 $614 −$614 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo Jun 06 $462 +$153 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $239 +$222 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $621 +$412 +66%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Alina Charaeva Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Foggia: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 04 $657 −$647 -98%
ITF Caserta: Diletta Cherubini vs Alice Rame Jun 04 $192 −$190 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $3,689 −$3,659 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $2,022 +$1,667 +82%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $469 −$462 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Denislava Glushkova May 28 $333 +$136 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova May 28 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $563 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 61¢ $347 15h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $348 15h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $228 19h
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Martha Matoula SELL Gina Feistel 24¢ $7 19h
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Martha Matoula BUY Gina Feistel 69¢ $2 20h
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Martha Matoula BUY Gina Feistel 69¢ $2 20h
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Martha Matoula BUY Gina Feistel 69¢ $120 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $5 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 77¢ $23 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $177 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $317 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $317 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $317 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $317 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $317 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $6 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $317 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $317 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $282 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $176 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 28¢ $199 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 32¢ $69 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 33¢ $170 2d
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $2,929 2d
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 50¢ $5 2d
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 46¢ $1,366 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $446 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1991 history records