Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
08 0x082b…3ab2 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$261 (+36%) realized +$261 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$294
14 days+$294
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$243
other 26% +$56
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +13.2% +2.5% 56% 56% +32.4%
≤30d 27 +13.2% +2.5% 56% 56% +32.4%
≤90d 33 +14.6% +3.7% 61% 61% +31.1%
all 33 +14.6% +3.7% 61% 61% +31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 61% +31.1%
10% -6.2% 52% +18.6%
15% -15.3% 45% +7.1%
20% -23.6% 36% -3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage87d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 +$17 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $75 +$54 +72%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $22 +$11 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$7 +50%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$10 -67%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win Jun 22 $11 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $15 −$4 -28%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 +$6 +64%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $126 +$85 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$7 +63%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $43 +$57 +134%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $4 +$1 +15%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$8 -80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $9 −$8 -89%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 +$7 +105%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06 Jun 20 $17 −$11 -65%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $31 +$22 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 +$16 +73%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $57 +$54 +95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $29 +$27 +91%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 29 $11 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner Mar 29 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 29 $3 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 29 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 29 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: BUY 26¢ $14 56m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on SELL 51¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 52¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 27¢ $19 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 6h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $2 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 67¢ $22 9h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $13 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $75 21h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 23h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL Grind Back 100¢ $15 23h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 33¢ $5 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: A BUY 39¢ $9 41h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win SELL 26¢ $9 42h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win BUY 29¢ $11 44h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 46¢ $11 44h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 62¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $9 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 AND Sp BUY 27¢ $8 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL 94¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $126 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 57¢ $11 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY 43¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $32.23 · 71 history records