Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x082d…a226 weather 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$32 (+10%) realized +$151 · open −$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip
Net edge+80%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 39L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day84.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+111.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +133.3% +111.1% 17% 17% +45.7%
≤30d 47 +133.3% +111.1% 17% 17% +45.7%
≤90d 47 +133.3% +111.1% 17% 17% +45.7%
all 47 +133.3% +111.1% 17% 17% +45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +111.1% 17% +45.7%
10% ← realistic here +90.9% 15% +31.8%
15% +72.4% 15% +19.0%
20% +55.5% 15% +7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late +182% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$4 · ×9.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 39
Open positions9
Markets (closed)47 / 56
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? No 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$52 +3060%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$56 +620%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$22 +610%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$68 +962%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$30 +2002%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 +$10 +4588%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$44 +1825%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 12¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.43 (match) · 307 history records