Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x082f…8606 other 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 53L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$14
politics 17% −$13
other 8% −$1
sports 1% +$72
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 +6.0% -4.1% 25% 18% -8.1%
all 68 +4.8% -5.2% 22% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 15% -9.3%
10% -14.2% 15% -18.0%
15% -22.5% 13% -25.9%
20% -30.1% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage592d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $147 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $143 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $143 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $138 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $292 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $13 +$10 +79%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $10 +$7 +70%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 +$6 +79%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $18 +$7 +42%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 12m
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 24h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 24h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $23 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $26 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.80 · official $68.80 (match) · 273 history records