Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x082f…8a74 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-11%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$30
other 7% +$5
tech 4% $0
sports 4% +$10
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +34.5% +21.7% 33% 33% +19.3%
≤30d 6 +34.5% +21.7% 33% 33% +19.3%
≤90d 41 -24.1% -31.4% 29% 29% -21.4%
all 41 -24.1% -31.4% 29% 29% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 29% -21.4%
10% -37.9% 29% -28.9%
15% -43.9% 27% -35.8%
20% -49.4% 22% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage66d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +301%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$10 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 10 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 10 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 10 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 09 $5 +$10 +195%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $1 $0 -29%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 11 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 11 $6 +$8 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY No 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $13 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 37d
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 56d
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.58 · official $3.58 (match) · 97 history records