Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x082f…ddd9 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 45L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2
sports 2% +$1
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 43 +10.3% -0.2% 26% 9% -9.5%
all 61 +10.5% +0.0% 26% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 10% -9.5%
10% -9.6% 10% -18.2%
15% -18.3% 10% -26.1%
20% -26.3% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×7.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage120d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $441 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $440 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $440 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $441 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $442 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $442 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 19? Apr 19 $442 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $442 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $442 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on April 14? Apr 15 $442 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $442 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? Apr 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on April 13? Apr 14 $427 $0 -0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $425 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA seas Apr 13 $419 +$1 +0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $444 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $444 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 29? Mar 29 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $444 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $444 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $444 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $444 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $441 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $441 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $441 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $440 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $440 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.59 · official $0.00 · 124 history records