Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0834…b743 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,930 (+7%) realized +$2,042 · open −$112
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$834per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$327est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,254
7 days+$2,746
14 days+$2,746
30 days+$2,746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$2,423
other 45% +$1,049
world 3% −$837
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 43% +6.0%
≤30d 30 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 43% +6.0%
≤90d 30 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 43% +6.0%
all 30 +3.6% -6.3% 43% 43% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 43% +6.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 43% -4.1%
15% -23.4% 43% -13.4%
20% -31.0% 33% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$837) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$864 vs −$499 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,061
Realized+$2,042
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$327
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage7d
Avg bet$834
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2,015 $2,010 −$5 (-0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 26¢ 10¢ $97 $39 −$58 (-60%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes $61 $12 −$49 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $997 +$1,229 +123%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $1,644 −$1,618 -98%
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Travaglia (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,010 +$492 +49%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $300 +$1,101 +367%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $810 +$896 +111%
Set Handicap: Zelinskaya (-1.5) vs Luo (+1.5) Jun 17 $389 +$194 +50%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $735 −$721 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $606 −$332 -55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $392 +$226 +58%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 17 $190 −$186 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $69 −$68 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi Jun 17 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $423 −$415 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $621 +$852 +137%
Jakub Mensik vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $197 +$387 +197%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $1,263 +$1,777 +141%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $987 −$969 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $959 +$1,350 +141%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $312 −$304 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $713 +$268 +38%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $697 −$687 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $512 −$500 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $508 −$499 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $849 −$837 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $262 −$257 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $694 −$588 -85%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $297 −$292 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $371 +$1,093 +295%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,341 +$1,372 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $99 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $63 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,064 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) SELL Chicago Sky 99¢ $2,226 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Chicago Sky 44¢ $2 2h
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Chicago Sky 44¢ $591 2h
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Chicago Sky 43¢ $404 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $990 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 27¢ $943 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $951 4h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Maks Kasnikowski 45¢ $5 16h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Maks Kasnikowski 47¢ $1,639 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,049 16h
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Travaglia (+1.5) SELL Travaglia 100¢ $1,503 16h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva SELL Anja Stankovic 100¢ $1,401 17h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo SELL Xi Luo 100¢ $1,706 17h
Set Handicap: Zelinskaya (-1.5) vs Luo (+1.5) BUY Luo 66¢ $389 20h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 47¢ $810 20h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Stefano Travaglia 43¢ $1 20h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 22¢ $44 21h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 21¢ $51 21h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 21¢ $205 21h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 44¢ $2 21h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 44¢ $733 21h
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Travaglia (+1.5) BUY Travaglia 66¢ $1,010 21h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh SELL Ye Chen 21¢ $53 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $75 21h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh SELL Ye Chen 33¢ $203 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 49¢ $618 22h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Ye Chen 26¢ $200 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,060.77 · official $2,060.77 (match) · 99 history records