Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0838…64f6 weather 768 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$701 (+7%) realized +$682 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%290W / 456L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$12
14 days+$66
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$530
other 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -8.1% -16.8% 47% 39% -9.7%
≤30d 299 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 37% -6.5%
≤90d 699 -2.9% -12.1% 39% 34% -4.3%
all 746 -1.6% -11.0% 39% 34% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 34% -4.1%
10% -19.5% 30% -13.3%
15% -27.3% 28% -21.7%
20% -34.4% 27% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$682
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses290 / 456
Open positions22
Markets (closed)746 / 768
History coverage107d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? No 90¢ 94¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? No 95¢ 98¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Yes 36¢ 57¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 20? No 76¢ 78¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? No 80¢ 90¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$11 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$4 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 −$17 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$9 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$5 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$9 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$12 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$10 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$12 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$14 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$6 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$9 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 20? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $18 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 56¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $57 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $111 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.59 · official $392.59 (match) · 1758 history records