Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x083c…a6ed sports 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-3%) realized −$283 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%81W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,933now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$49
sports 31% −$247
other 13% +$3
politics 9% −$49
finance 5% −$1
tech 2% −$16
crypto 2% −$78
weather 1% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -55.6% -59.8% 28% 23% -9.6%
≤30d 271 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 24% -18.0%
≤90d 271 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 24% -18.0%
all 271 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 24% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 24% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 18% -25.8%
15% -29.5% 13% -33.0%
20% -36.4% 10% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,933
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses81 / 190
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions18
Markets (closed)271 / 289
History coverage20d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $320 $346 +$26 (+8%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $330 $337 +$7 (+2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $255 $258 +$3 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $240 $247 +$7 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $240 $241 +$1 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $240 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 24¢ 29¢ $135 $160 +$25 (+18%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $130 $137 +$7 (+5%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 87¢ 93¢ $120 $129 +$9 (+7%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+3%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 97¢ 92¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 22 $50 −$21 -42%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $151 +$43 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $51 +$24 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $122 +$30 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $81 +$30 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 21 $51 +$8 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $122 −$72 -59%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $123 +$177 +143%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $123 +$122 +99%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $51 +$13 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $51 +$25 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $30 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -17%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
AS FAR vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 15.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 162.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $29 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $81 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $81 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $121 10h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $121 11h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $121 11h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 19h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $121 20h
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by September 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 20h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $66 21h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $122 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 24h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $121 26h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $121 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $121 28h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $81 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $121 29h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $121 36h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 36¢ $50 37h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $122 39h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $121 41h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 85¢ $122 42h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Levan Chokheli 78¢ $51 42h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 79¢ $122 42h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 85¢ $51 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,932.70 · official $2,932.70 (match) · 861 history records