Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x083d…4d61 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,507 (-25%) realized −$1,528 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%45W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$794
crypto 13% +$45
world 12% −$48
politics 9% −$490
sports 9% −$197
culture 3% −$50
tech 1% +$24
economics 1% +$2
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 47% +11.6%
≤30d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 47% +11.6%
≤90d 20 -16.9% -24.8% 40% 40% -25.6%
all 96 -27.0% -33.9% 47% 40% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 40% -33.6%
10% -40.2% 25% -40.0%
15% -46.0% 17% -45.8%
20% -51.3% 12% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$45 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$327
Realized−$1,528
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses45 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)96 / 104
History coverage592d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $155 $207 +$52 (+33%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $54 $37 −$16 (-31%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 70¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $31 +$46 +150%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $147 −$102 -70%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin be the top performing crypto for the week of March 16? Mar 29 $51 +$11 +22%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 11 $11 −$2 -21%
Honduras presidential election annulled by February 28? Mar 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 11 $29 +$1 +3%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Mar 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Feb 18 $33 +$7 +22%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? Feb 18 $44 +$6 +12%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 18 $153 +$11 +8%
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch? Jan 19 $23 +$7 +32%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jan 13 $5 +$6 +118%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 09 $95 −$72 -75%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 09 $6 −$6 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 05 $402 −$371 -92%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jan 05 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 03 $45 +$5 +11%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 03 $33 +$7 +20%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? Jan 03 $28 +$7 +24%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 03 $20 +$5 +22%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record in 2025? Jan 03 $21 +$4 +19%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Dec 31 $72 +$48 +68%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 30 $39 +$10 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $45 +$5 +11%
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Dec 26 $11 −$11 -100%
US strikes Nigeria by December 31? Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 25 $99 +$11 +11%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Dec 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 25 $40 +$4 +9%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Dec 24 $55 −$55 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Dec 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $31 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.06 · official $327.06 (match) · 497 history records