Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0840…77d8 crypto 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate86%198W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days−$30
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$55
weather 3% −$68
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 89% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 69 +0.0% -9.5% 84% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 199 -0.3% -9.8% 85% 2% -9.6%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses198 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage105d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $213 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $210 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $211 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $210 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 17 $208 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $208 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $206 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $205 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $411 −$3 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +80%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $205 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $205 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $202 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $54 −$13 -24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? Jun 09 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $197 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $23 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $23 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $398 −$9 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 04 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 03 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $391 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 02 $41 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on June 1? Jun 02 $193 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 01 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? May 31 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 30? May 31 $199 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $214 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $213 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $213 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $210 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $210 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $209 38h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $208 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $211 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $211 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $210 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $209 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $208 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $209 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $208 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $207 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $207 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $206 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $207 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $205 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $204 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $203 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $203 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $208 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $207 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $205 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 8d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $204 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 485 history records