Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0840…b0e1 other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 219L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$33
sports 24% −$19
culture 8% −$7
politics 8% −$7
world 5% −$2
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage131d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $448 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $190 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 21 $350 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $373 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $174 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $417 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $472 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $525 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $414 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $575 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 35m
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 6h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 10h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $56 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 14h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 19h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 20h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 25h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 26h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 34h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 35h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 37h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 38h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 40h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 41h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $56 44h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $56 45h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 47h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1335 history records