Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0844…bf81 sports 408 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,417 (-11%) realized −$2,388 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%193W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$175
14 days−$392
30 days−$1,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,551
other 3% +$60
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 46% -19.8%
≤30d 141 -19.8% -27.4% 41% 40% -28.1%
≤90d 407 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 46% -20.3%
all 407 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 46% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 46% -20.3%
10% -27.0% 45% -27.9%
15% -34.0% 42% -34.9%
20% -40.5% 36% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$48 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,388
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses193 / 214
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions1
Markets (closed)407 / 408
History coverage65d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner PCIFIC 40¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $68 +$46 +68%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $26 +$53 +206%
Map Handicap: RC (-1.5) vs IGZIST (+1.5) Jun 26 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $49 +$42 +86%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Jun 25 $58 +$15 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $33 +$25 +77%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To Jun 25 $22 +$11 +48%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Jun 25 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $49 −$48 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 +$33 +91%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $39 +$46 +118%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $46 −$28 -61%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$39 +97%
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $45 −$44 -99%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $30 +$14 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $22 +$28 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $15 +$23 +152%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 −$24 -98%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $10 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$2 -18%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $19 +$17 +93%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $12 +$6 +52%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $12 −$12 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $11 +$13 +122%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $89 −$88 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $89 −$88 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $54 +$65 +120%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $36 +$48 +134%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $80 −$78 -98%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $65 +$16 +24%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $17 +$28 +168%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $38 −$38 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $119 −$118 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $112 −$111 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 83¢ $48 6m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 32¢ $19 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 94¢ $67 51m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 69¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner BUY PCIFIC 40¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner BUY PCIFIC 32¢ $26 6h
Map Handicap: RC (-1.5) vs IGZIST (+1.5) SELL REJECT 100¢ $70 6h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne BUY The Huns Esports 52¢ $30 8h
Map Handicap: RC (-1.5) vs IGZIST (+1.5) BUY REJECT 57¢ $41 8h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 100¢ $91 18h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 53¢ $49 19h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 79¢ $58 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola SELL Max Basing 80¢ $58 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Max Basing 44¢ $33 26h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To SELL The Huns Esports 100¢ $33 26h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 40¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To BUY The Huns Esports 67¢ $22 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 15¢ $12 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 66¢ $49 29h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 18¢ $20 29h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 57¢ $49 30h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $69 36h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $36 37h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $85 37h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $39 37h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 38h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 36¢ $29 39h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner SELL Division One 51¢ $19 39h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $80 39h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 2 Winner BUY Division One 45¢ $17 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 666 history records