Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x0845…6b6f
world · 191 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$44,978 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26,076 · open +$12,202
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$248,833
Realized+$26,076
Unrealized+$12,202
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses64 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions325
Markets (closed)232 / 191
Avg bet$3,442
Trades / day146.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 325 History 232 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,808
7 days−$18,711
14 days+$20,797
30 days+$26,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 98¢ $21,568 $22,264 +$695 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $11,311 $18,473 +$7,162 (+63%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $13,109 $16,466 +$3,357 (+26%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 92¢ 92¢ $11,378 $11,394 +$17 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 95¢ 94¢ $10,938 $10,816 −$122 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 70¢ 57¢ $10,146 $8,331 −$1,815 (-18%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 97¢ 95¢ $8,065 $7,950 −$115 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? No 97¢ 98¢ $5,293 $5,329 +$36 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 90¢ 88¢ $4,768 $4,630 −$138 (-3%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $4,016 $4,573 +$558 (+14%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 98¢ 99¢ $4,524 $4,537 +$13 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $3,684 $4,507 +$822 (+22%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $3,748 $4,053 +$305 (+8%)
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $3,583 $3,895 +$312 (+9%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $3,423 $3,674 +$252 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 57¢ $2,268 $3,660 +$1,392 (+61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $1,824 $3,428 +$1,603 (+88%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 86¢ 90¢ $3,126 $3,265 +$139 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $3,221 $3,260 +$40 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $3,024 $3,064 +$40 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,997 $3,045 +$48 (+2%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,859 $2,878 +$19 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $2,606 $2,837 +$231 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 62¢ $1,515 $2,812 +$1,297 (+86%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 43¢ 88¢ $1,290 $2,625 +$1,335 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US strike 1 country in 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the US strike Colombia next? Jun 12 $441 −$479 -108%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jun 12 $173 +$372 +216%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $296 −$2,182 -736%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $122 −$278 -229%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 7 be between 2,000 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $186 −$186 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the US strike Cuba next? Jun 12 $27 −$179 -663%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 12 $332 −$332 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 12 $393 −$393 -100%
Will Melania say "Foster" or "Fostering" during Security Council event Jun 12 $55 −$85 -154%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31? Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
James Comey charges dropped by May 31? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $196 −$178 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jun 12 $581 −$625 -108%
Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Jamie" be said 5+ times during the first episode of the Joe Roga Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -50%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Kiss" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the w Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Trump say "Poland" or "Polish" during Medal of Honor ceremony on Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 12 $35 −$57 -162%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 25 be greater than Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $178 −$513 -288%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 12 $87 −$183 -210%
Will the US strike Yemen next? Jun 12 $181 −$181 -100%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? Jun 12 $351 −$223 -63%
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Jun 12 $456 −$486 -106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$46,139
tech 15% +$2,553
crypto 13% +$8,033
politics 11% +$5,396
other 7% −$2,443
culture 0% +$351
finance 0% −$347
economics 0% +$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $496 38m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 96¢ $2,110 52m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $355 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 89¢ $101 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $120 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 93¢ $9 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 96¢ $52 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $59 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 93¢ $59 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $193 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $244 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 23¢ $72 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,647 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 93¢ $214 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 93¢ $307 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 93¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -16.7% -24.7% 16% 12% -32.1%
≤30d 232 +18.0% +6.8% 28% 21% -0.4%
≤90d 232 +18.0% +6.8% 28% 21% -0.4%
all 232 +18.0% +6.8% 28% 21% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover146.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 21% -0.4%
10% -3.4% 18% -10.0%
15% ← realistic here -12.7% 16% -18.7%
20% -21.3% 15% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248,833.14 · official $249,576.82 (match) · 3500 history records